Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Surkhon Termez win with a probability of 40.86%. A win for Alashkert FC had a probability of 30.83% and a draw had a probability of 28.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Surkhon Termez win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.25%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Alashkert FC win was 0-1 (9.87%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.