Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 59.83%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Penafiel had a probability of 17.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.62%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Penafiel win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.

Result
Famalicao	Draw	Penafiel
59.83% ( -0.13)	22.97% ( 0.03)	17.19% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 46.95% (

0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.43% (

0.04)

51.56% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.64% (

0.04)

73.36% (

-0.04)

Famalicao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.12% (

-0.03)

16.88% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.09% (

-0.05)

46.91% (

0.05)

Penafiel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.48% (

0.15)

43.51% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.28% (

0.12)

79.72% (

-0.12)

Score Analysis

Famalicao 59.82%

Penafiel 17.19%

Draw 22.97%

Famalicao	Draw	Penafiel
1-0 @ 13.06% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 11.62% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.89% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.74% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.55% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( 0) 5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 1.78% Total : 59.82%	1-1 @ 10.87% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.35% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.73% Total : 22.97%	0-1 @ 6.11% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.54% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.64% Total : 17.19%