Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 56.29%. A win for Wrexham had a probability of 23.7% and a draw had a probability of 20%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.87%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Wrexham win was 1-2 (5.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.