Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 44.01%. A win for Cerezo Osaka had a probability of 32.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.05%) and 0-2 (6.11%). The likeliest Cerezo Osaka win was 2-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Cerezo Osaka	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
32.78% ( 2.05)	23.21% ( -0.01)	44.01% ( -2.04)

Both teams to score 63.36% (

1.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.03% (

0.94)

37.96% (

-0.95)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.77% (

60.22% (

-1)

Cerezo Osaka Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.98% (

1.67)

23.02% (

-1.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.17% (

2.39)

56.83% (

-2.39)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.31% (

-0.43)

17.69% (

0.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.67% (

-0.76)

48.33% (

0.76)

Score Analysis

Cerezo Osaka 32.78%

Borussia Dortmund 44.01%

Draw 23.21%

Cerezo Osaka	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 7.61% ( 0.28) 1-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 4.39% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 3.73% ( 0.31) 3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.23) 3-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.21) 4-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.17) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.14) Other @ 3.14% Total : 32.78%	1-1 @ 10.36% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 4.07% ( -0.19) 3-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.21%	1-2 @ 8.97% ( -0.23) 0-1 @ 7.05% ( -0.43) 0-2 @ 6.11% ( -0.47) 1-3 @ 5.18% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 3.81% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 3.53% ( -0.32) 1-4 @ 2.24% ( -0.12) 2-4 @ 1.65% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.16) Other @ 3.94% Total : 44.01%