Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 43.36%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 35.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.37%) and 2-3 (4.84%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.

Result
Erzgebirge Aue	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
35.45% ( 0.15)	21.18% ( -0.06)	43.36% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 72.22% (

0.3)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

73.17% (

0.37)

26.82% (

-0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

52.73% (

0.47)

47.26% (

-0.47)

Erzgebirge Aue Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.5% (

0.24)

16.5% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.77% (

0.42)

46.23% (

-0.42)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.5% (

0.12)

13.5% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.46% (

0.24)

40.54% (

-0.23)

Score Analysis

Erzgebirge Aue 35.45%

Borussia Dortmund 43.36%

Draw 21.18%

Erzgebirge Aue	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 7.24% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.35% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 4.01% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 2.17% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.03) 4-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.5% Total : 35.45%	1-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 7.25% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.76% Total : 21.18%	1-2 @ 8.05% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 5.37% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 4.84% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 4.46% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 2.69% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 2.42% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 1.46% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) 2-5 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.09% Total : 43.36%