Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 43.36%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 35.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.37%) and 2-3 (4.84%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.