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Freiburg logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 4
Sep 11, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
Mage-Solar-Stadion
Koln logo

Freiburg
1 - 1
FC Koln

Czichos (89' og.)
Schade (74')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Modeste (34')
Kainz (51'), Modeste (69')
Kainz (74')

Preview: Freiburg vs. FC Koln - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and FC Koln, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two of the surprise packages of the new Bundesliga season so far meet at the Schwarzwald-Stadion on Saturday, as Freiburg welcome FC Koln.

Currently sitting in the European places in the table, neither side will have welcomed the international break halting their strong starts to the campaign.


Match preview

SC Freiburg's Jonathan Schmid celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on August 8, 2021© Reuters

Back in the summer, Freiburg could not have wished for a much better start to the new season under manager Christian Streich.

This weekend's hosts currently sit fourth in the table after the opening three league matches, with two wins and a draw meaning this is their best ever start to a Bundesliga campaign.

In fact, including the DFB-Pokal win in their first competitive match, it means that Freiburg have also made an unbeaten start.

The highlights of this run have been in the last two games, where they have seen off title challengers Borussia Dortmund 2-1 at the Schwarzwald-Stadion, before defeating rivals Stuttgart on their own patch last time out before the break.

A thrilling derby saw Freiburg edge out their rivals 3-2, with all five goals arriving in the first half. Woo-Yeong Jeong netted a brace inside the opening nine minutes, before Lucas Holer extended their lead before the half-hour mark.

However, it turned out to be a nervy second half of football, with two goals conceded on the stroke of half time leaving the visitors with their backs to the wall all of a sudden, before seeing out the rest of the match relatively comfortably.

FC Koln players celebrate scoring against Union Berlin on November 22, 2020© Reuters

Although Koln have not remained unbeaten at the start of their season, they too have begun strongly themselves.

Home wins over Hertha Berlin and VfL Bochum have come either side of a narrow defeat away to champions Bayern Munich, before the players jetted out for international duty.

These results have seen new manager Steffen Baumgart lead his side to an unlikely sixth place currently, after narrowly avoiding relegation in recent years.

One of the big changes Baumgart has overseen so far is Koln's effectiveness in front of goal. Seven goals have been scored in the first three league matches, which is an impressive return for any side, never mind a team that only managed 34 goals in as many games last season.

Most recently, Koln overcame newly-promoted Bochum on home turf via a 2-1 scoreline.

The Billy Goats enjoyed near complete domination throughout a match that was heading towards a goalless draw until a flurry of late goals in the final 10 minutes or so, with Louis Schaub and Tim Lemperle netting for this weekend's visitors.

Freiburg Bundesliga form:
  • D
  • W
  • W

Freiburg form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W

FC Koln Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • L
  • W

FC Koln form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Freiburg coach Christian Streich pictured on February 20, 2021© Reuters

Freiburg head into Saturday's match with just the one injury concern to contend with it appears.

Midfielder Nicolas Hofler is expected to miss out, with summer signing Maximilian Eggestein likely to take his place.

Right-back Jonathan Schmid has returned from a bout of COVID-19, so should replace Lukas Kubler in the starting lineup.

For the visitors, youngster Jan Thielmann has recently recovered from a cold but the match is expected to come too soon for him as he regains his fitness.

Timo Hubers (knock) and Jannes Horn (hip) also remain missing so manager Baumgart is likely to stick with the side that were victorious over Bochum before the break.

Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Schmid, Lienhart, Schlotterbeck, Gunter; Sallai, Keitel, Eggestein, Grifo; Jeong, Holer

FC Koln possible starting lineup:
T Horn; Schmitz, Mere, Czichos, Hector; Skhiri; Ljubicic, Duda, Kainz; Modeste, Andersson


SM words green background

We say: Freiburg 2-1 FC Koln

An entertaining game should be on the cards here, with both sides hopefully looking to play on the front foot after their strong starts to the season. However, Freiburg's home advantage should be enough to see them edge out Koln by a 2-1 scoreline we say.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



ID:462896:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9349:
Written by
Matthew Tranter

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 42.44%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 32.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.66%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Freiburg vs FC Koln

Freiburg
76.7%
Draw
9.3%
FC Koln
14.0%
43
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3Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1375130201026
4RB Leipzig137332114724
5Wolfsburg136342922721
6Borussia DortmundDortmund136342420421
7Freiburg136341717021
8Stuttgart135532623320
9Mainz 05Mainz135442318519
10Werder Bremen135442024-419
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach135351918118
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin134451214-216
13Augsburg134451625-916
14Hoffenheim133461825-713
15St Pauli133281117-611
16Heidenheim133191728-1110
17Holstein Kiel1312101333-205
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1302111034-242


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