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Flamengo
Brasileiro | Gameweek 13
Jul 25, 2021 at 8pm UK
Estádio Olímpico João Havelange
Sao Paulo

Flamengo
5 - 1
Sao Paulo

Henrique (70', 72', 77'), Henrique (86'), Welington (90+2' og.)
Caio (53'), Arao (54'), Luis (62')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Arboleda (48')
Welington (32'), Reinaldo (40'), Marquinhos (62'), Rigoni (83'), Vinicius (85'), Benitez (90+10'), Benitez (90+10')

Preview: Flamengo vs. Sao Paulo - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Brasileiro clash between Flamengo and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Last season's Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A champions Flamengo will be looking to close in on a place in the top four when they host Sao Paulo on Sunday.

The two teams head into this fixture after successfully progressing into the quarter-finals of the Copa Libertadores, after both overcoming Argentinian opposition.


Match preview

Flamengo's Rodrigo Muniz celebrates scoring their second goal on June 20, 2021© Reuters

Flamengo's hopes of winning the Copa Libertadores for the second time in three years remain alive, as they cruised to a 4-1 victory in their last-16 second-leg tie against Defensa y Justicia on Thursday, winning 5-1 on aggregate.

Rodrigo Caio's ninth-minute strike was followed by second-half goals from Giorgian De Arrascaeta and Vitinho, with the latter scoring twice in the final 10 minutes to book Flamengo's place in the quarter-finals.

Since the arrival of head coach Renato Gaucho, the Scarlet-Black's form has improved significantly. In a two and a half week period between the end of June and the beginning of July, Flamengo lost four league matches out of six. Since then, they have won each of their last four games across all competitions, scoring 12 goals in the process, with three of these victories under Gaucho's tenure.

This includes an impressive 5-0 thrashing away at Bahia last weekend, a result which greatly improved their goal difference and saw them rise up to sixth in the Brasileiro standings.

Last season's league champions lost both encounters with Sao Paulo last season, though they will fancy their chances of getting revenge on Sunday and a win could see them move to within three points of the top four.

Sao Paulo coach Hernan Crespo during the match on May 5, 2021© Reuters

Like Flamengo, Sao Paulo also progressed into the last eight of the Copa Libertadores, when they beat Racing Club 3-1 in the second leg of their last-16 tie on Thursday, winning 4-2 on aggregate.

The Tricolor Paulista failed to beat the Argentinian outfit in their previous three attempts during this year's competition, but a brace from Emiliano Rigoni and a strike from Marquinhos ensured they came out on top this time around, to reach the quarter-finals for the first time in six years.

Hernan Crespo's men now turn their attention back to the Brasileiro, where they have struggled so far this campaign. Another defeat in their last league match, at home to Fortaleza, leaves Sao Paulo one point above the relegation zone, with just two wins from 12 matches on the board.

They can, however, take confidence into Sunday's game as they have an impressive record against Flamengo, winning six and drawing three of the last nine meetings against them across all competitions.

Sao Paulo have only won once in the league on the road this term, but a victory this weekend would provide a massive boost for Crespo's men who could climb as high as 12th in the table.

Flamengo Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W

Flamengo form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Sao Paulo Brasileiro form:
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L

Sao Paulo form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W


Team News

Sao Paulo's Dani Alves walks off the pitch after sustaining an injury ON MAY 5, 2021© Reuters

Flamengo duo Piris Da Motta and Cesar remain unavailable for selection as they are suffering with respective ankle and knee injuries.

Gaucho is unlikely to make too many changes from the side that won on Thursday, which could see Everton Ribeiro and Bruno Henrique keep their places on the flanks.

Midfielders Willian Arao and Diego could also start again, though Joao Gomes and Thiago Maia will be looking to force their way back into the first XI.

As for Sao Paulo, they will be without Eder (thigh), William da Silva (knee), Luciano (thigh) and Walce (knee) due to injury.

Dani Alves is also unavailable as he is with the Brazilian national team in Tokyo for the 2020 Olympics.

Centre-back Bruno Alves could return to the starting lineup at the expense of Robert Arboleda, while Marquinhos and Rigoni are set to keep their places in attack, after scoring in midweek.

Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Isla, G. Henrique, Pereira, Luis; Arao, Diego; Ribeiro, De Arrascaeta, B. Henrique; Barbosa

Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; B. Alves, Miranda, Leo; Vinicius, Liziero, Welington, Sara, Benitez; Marquinhos, Rigoni


SM words green background

We say: Flamengo 1-0 Sao Paulo

Flamengo have seemingly found their form at the right time and will be hoping to continue their good run with another victory on Sunday.

Sao Paulo have also improved in recent weeks, however we can see the hosts securing a narrow win, which would be their first against the visitors in over four years.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



ID:456700:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect11091:
Written by
Oliver Thomas

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 51.52%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 23.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (7.18%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Flamengo vs Sao Paulo

Flamengo
74.1%
Draw
14.8%
Sao Paulo
11.1%
27
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Botafogo382310559293079
2PalmeirasPalmeiras38227960332773
3FlamengoFlamengo382010861421970
4FortalezaFortaleza381911853391468
5InternacionalInternacional381811953361765
6Sao Paulo381781353431059
7Corinthians381511125445956
8Bahia38158154949053
9Cruzeiro381410144341252
10Vasco da GamaVasco38148164356-1350
11Vitoria38138174552-747
12Atletico Mineiro381114134754-747
13Fluminense381210163339-646
14Gremio38129174450-645
15JuventudeJuventude381112154859-1145
16BragantinoBragantino381014144448-444
17Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR38119184046-642
18CriciumaCriciuma38911184261-1938
19Atletico GoianienseAtletico GO3879222958-2930
20Cuiaba38612202949-2030


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