There is a lot to play for on Saturday for two Istanbul-based teams, as fifth-placed Fenerbahce host rivals Istanbul Basaksehir, who could leapfrog the Yellow Canaries.
Basaksehir sit just three points behind Fenerbahce in eighth spot and three points for the visitors this weekend will see them move above their opponent, still with a game in hand to their advantage.
Match preview
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Ismail Kartal's side are sitting just outside the top four on goal difference and will be confident about securing European football next year, currently unbeaten under their new manager.
Fenerbahce ensured that Kartal did not suffer his first defeat last time out, when they earned a 1-1 draw against Sivasspor, but they did allow their hosts to find a way back into the game after initially going ahead through Miha Zajc's 18th-minute strike.
Saturday's home team are expected to get on the scoresheet, having found the back of the net in all but one of their Super Lig matches so far this season, including scoring at least once in each of their last 18 consecutive domestic games.
Kartal will be keen to carry on his winning start on home soil, and their form on their own patch could be a key influencing factor as to whether or not they secure a top-four finish in May.
When it comes to derby matches, form tends to become irrelevant as the result on the day comes down to the team who shows the most passion, and that is what Istanbul Basaksehir will have to do this weekend, as their form is not great.
A 2-1 defeat against Goztepe last Saturday meant that Emre Belozoglu's side recorded back-to-back losses for the first time since the beginning of the campaign, and they will need to end that losing run soon if they are to continue to apply pressure on the top four.
December and January were tough months for Basaksehir as they played five away matches, compared to only three on home soil, and another match not in front of the majority of their own fans could make Saturday even more difficult for the visitors.
Belozoglu's side have a good defensive record, the third best in the division having only conceded 23 goals so far, and that could help them frustrate Fenerbahce, to then look to capitalise on a counter attack.
Saturday's visitors have the opportunity to complete the league double over their Istanbul rivals, after securing a 2-0 win in September thanks to goals from Stefano Okaka and Fredrik Gulbrandsen.
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Team News
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Altay Bayindir, Filip Novak, Mert Hakan Yandas and Serdar Aziz are all sidelined due to injury and so will not feature for Fenerbahce this weekend.
Mesut Ozil will be out of the matchday squad due to coronavirus, and reports have suggested that he could face an uneasy reunion with former Germany boss Joachim Low, who has been linked with taking over Fenerbahce.
Defender Attila Szalai will return to the side after serving his one-match suspension for picking up his fourth yellow card of the season against Altay, while Marcel Tisserand is also likely to start in the back four, in place of the injured Aziz.
Mahmut Tekdemir has recently picked up a ligament injury which will rule him out for Istanbul Basaksehir until next month, while centre-back Leo Duarte picked up his fourth yellow card of the season last time out, making him unavailable for this derby.
Winger Serdar Gurler was forced off in the 31st minute against Kayserispor and missed out the last match, but he could return to Basaksehir on the bench this weekend.
Okaka will continue to lead the line for the visitors, looking to end his five-game run without finding the back of the net and adding to his nine goals this term.
Fenerbahce possible starting lineup:
Ozer; Szalai, Kim, Tisserand, Osayi-Samuel; Sosa, Crespo; Valencia, Kahveci, Kadioglu; Dursun
Istanbul Basaksehir possible starting lineup:
Babacan; Kaldirim, Ndayishimiye, Epureanu, Caicara; Cigerci; Chadli, Ozcan, Turuc, Sahiener; Okaka
We say: Fenerbahce 2-1 Istanbul Basaksehir
Fenerbahce will be looking to inflict revenge on their rivals after Basaksehir got the better of them in the reverse fixture, and on home soil they are favourites to do so.
The hosts are in slightly better form than the away team, but in rivalries form does seem to become irrelevant, but what is almost certain is that it will be a closely-fought clash.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 52.12%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Istanbul Basaksehir had a probability of 23.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Istanbul Basaksehir win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
