FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 6, 2024 at 3pm UK

Bet365 Stadium

Stoke
2 - 4
Brighton

Paul van Hecke (16' og., 16' og., 16' og.), Baker (63' pen.)
Hoever (13'), Hoever (13'), Hoever (13'), Rose (37'), Rose (37'), Bae (48')

FT(HT: 3-2)

Estupinan (45+6', 45+6'), Dunk (52'), Pedro (71', 80')
Paul van Hecke (8'), Paul van Hecke (8'), Paul van Hecke (8'), Paul van Hecke (8'), Buonanotte (37'), Buonanotte (37')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Stoke City and Brighton & Hove Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stoke City

All competitions

Last Game: Stoke 0-0 Ipswich
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Brighton & Hove Albion

All competitions

Last Game: West Ham 0-0 Brighton
Tuesday, January 2 at 7.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 35.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 1-0 (8.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.

Result
Stoke City	Draw	Brighton & Hove Albion
35.87% ( -0.06)	25.39% ( -0)	38.74% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 56.28% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.47% (

0.01)

47.52% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.27% (

0.01)

69.73% (

-0.01)

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.24% (

-0.03)

25.76% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.3% (

-0.03)

60.7% (

0.03)

Brighton & Hove Albion Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.81% (

0.03)

24.18% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.48% (

0.05)

58.51% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Stoke City 35.87%

Brighton & Hove Albion 38.74%

Draw 25.39%

Stoke City	Draw	Brighton & Hove Albion
1-0 @ 8.45% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.73% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0) Other @ 3.43% Total : 35.87%	1-1 @ 11.99% 0-0 @ 6.23% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.77% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.39%	0-1 @ 8.84% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.51% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 4.03% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.97% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.73% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.43% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.05% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 1.92% Total : 38.74%