Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 47.13%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 28.66% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.