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FA Cup | Fifth Round
Mar 1, 2023 at 7.15pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Grimsby Town

Southampton
1 - 2
Grimsby Town

Caleta-Car (65')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Holohan (45+1' pen., 50' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's FA Cup clash between Southampton and Grimsby Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Leeds 1-0 Southampton
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in Premier League

Grimsby Town

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-2 Leyton Orient
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in League Two

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 47.13%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 28.66% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.

Result
SouthamptonDrawGrimsby Town
47.13% (-3.647 -3.65)24.21% (0.788 0.79)28.66% (2.857 2.86)
Both teams to score 57.47% (-0.269 -0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.28% (-1.446 -1.45)44.72% (1.442 1.44)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.92% (-1.408 -1.41)67.08% (1.407 1.41)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.9% (-1.976 -1.98)19.1% (1.974 1.97)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.28% (-3.376 -3.38)50.72% (3.373 3.37)
Grimsby Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.04% (1.368 1.37)28.96% (-1.369 -1.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.15% (1.664 1.66)64.85% (-1.667 -1.67)
Score Analysis
    Southampton 47.13%
    Grimsby Town 28.66%
    Draw 24.2%
SouthamptonDrawGrimsby Town
2-1 @ 9.39% (-0.255 -0.25)
1-0 @ 9.16% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.58% (-0.507 -0.51)
3-1 @ 5.18% (-0.492 -0.49)
3-0 @ 4.18% (-0.574 -0.57)
3-2 @ 3.21% (-0.173 -0.17)
4-1 @ 2.15% (-0.358 -0.36)
4-0 @ 1.73% (-0.367 -0.37)
4-2 @ 1.33% (-0.164 -0.16)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 47.13%
1-1 @ 11.34% (0.41 0.41)
2-2 @ 5.82% (0.065 0.07)
0-0 @ 5.53% (0.337 0.34)
3-3 @ 1.33% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.2%
1-2 @ 7.03% (0.508 0.51)
0-1 @ 6.86% (0.658 0.66)
0-2 @ 4.25% (0.55 0.55)
1-3 @ 2.91% (0.311 0.31)
2-3 @ 2.4% (0.115 0.12)
0-3 @ 1.76% (0.285 0.29)
Other @ 3.46%
Total : 28.66%

How you voted: Southampton vs Grimsby Town

Southampton
75.6%
Draw
11.1%
Grimsby Town
13.3%
90