Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 44.58%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 0-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.