Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 45.28%. A win for Genk had a probability of 29.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Genk win was 0-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.