Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olympiacos win with a probability of 52.51%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 24.48% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olympiacos win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 1-2 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Olympiacos would win this match.