Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Elfsborg had a probability of 37.1% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.19%) and 0-2 (5.22%). The likeliest Elfsborg win was 2-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Elfsborg would win this match.