Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Elfsborg had a probability of 37.1% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.19%) and 0-2 (5.22%). The likeliest Elfsborg win was 2-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Elfsborg would win this match.

Result
Elfsborg	Draw	Qarabag FK
37.1% ( 3.26)	23% ( -0.28)	39.91% ( -2.97)

Both teams to score 65.31% (

1.8)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.13% (

2.07)

35.87% (

-2.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.05% (

2.24)

57.95% (

-2.23)

Elfsborg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.18% (

2.6)

19.82% (

-2.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.1% (

4.04)

51.9% (

-4.04)

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.46% (

-0.41)

18.54% (

0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.21% (

-0.69)

49.79% (

0.69)

Score Analysis

Elfsborg 37.1%

Qarabag FK 39.91%

Draw 23%

Elfsborg	Draw	Qarabag FK
2-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.35) 1-0 @ 5.95% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 4.81% ( 0.27) 3-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.51) 3-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.39) 3-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.33) 4-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.33) 4-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.26) 4-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.2) Other @ 3.25% Total : 37.1%	1-1 @ 10.02% ( -0.35) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.39) 3-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.19) Other @ 0.4% Total : 23%	1-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.41) 0-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.75) 0-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.71) 1-3 @ 4.74% ( -0.3) 2-3 @ 3.84% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.44) 1-4 @ 2% ( -0.15) 2-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.2) Other @ 3.69% Total : 39.91%