Europa League

Europa League | Qualifying Playoffs | 2nd Leg

Feb 24, 2022 at 8pm UK

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli
2 - 4
Barcelona

(Barcelona win 5-3 on aggregate)

Insigne (23' pen.), Politano (87')
Zielinski (56'), Fabian (62')

FT(HT: 1-3)

Alba (8'), de Jong (13'), Pique (45'), Aubameyang (59')
Gavi (90+3')

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 39.4%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 34.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 0-1 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.

Result
Napoli	Draw	Barcelona
39.4%	26.09%	34.51%

Both teams to score 53.72%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.26%

50.74%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.36%

72.64%

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.71%

25.29%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.94%

60.06%

Barcelona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.9%

28.1%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.23%

63.77%

Score Analysis

Napoli 39.4%

Barcelona 34.51%

Draw 26.09%

Napoli	Draw	Barcelona
1-0 @ 9.77% 2-1 @ 8.53% 2-0 @ 6.72% 3-1 @ 3.91% 3-0 @ 3.08% 3-2 @ 2.48% 4-1 @ 1.34% 4-0 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.53% Total : 39.4%	1-1 @ 12.4% 0-0 @ 7.11% 2-2 @ 5.41% 3-3 @ 1.05% Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.09%	0-1 @ 9.02% 1-2 @ 7.87% 0-2 @ 5.73% 1-3 @ 3.33% 0-3 @ 2.42% 2-3 @ 2.29% 1-4 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.79% Total : 34.51%