Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 38.86%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 37.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.32%) and 0-2 (5.66%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.