Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 41.53%. A win for Malmo had a probability of 33.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Malmo win was 1-0 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Union Berlin in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Union Berlin.