Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 44.01%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 34.35% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.43%) and 1-0 (5.08%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 1-2 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.