Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 55.7%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 22.68% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.17%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-2 (5.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.