Europa League
Jul 16, 2026 6.30pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
  • Ellis Chapman 47' goal
  • Christy Grogan 79' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ángelo Martino 46'
  • goal Ioannis Pittas 74'
  • yellowcard Teodor Ivanov 75'
  • yellowcard Facundo Rodríguez 90'+4'
  • yellowcard Stefano Sensi 90'+13'
  • goal Barry Cotter 90'+18' (OG)

Derry City vs CSKA Sofia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Derry City

All competitions
Europa League
Last game
Jul 9, 2026 7.00pm
CSKA Sofia 3 - 2 Derry

CSKA Sofia

All competitions
Europa League
Last game
Jul 9, 2026 7.00pm
CSKA Sofia 3 - 2 Derry

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 48.33%. A win for CSKA Sofia had a probability of 27.33% and a draw had a probability of 24.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest CSKA Sofia win was 0-1 (7.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result

Derry City 48.33%
Draw 24.37%
CSKA Sofia 27.33%

Both Teams to Score: 

52.68%

Goals

Over 1.5 75.72%
Under 1.5 24.28%
Over 2.5 52.04%
Under 2.5 47.96%
Over 3.5 29.44% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 70.53% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 17.08% (-0.04)
Under 4.5 82.92% (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Derry City 32.09% (+0.03)
Draw 44.17% (-0.01)
CSKA Sofia 23.74% (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Derry City 52.64%
No Goal 6.9% (+0.02)
CSKA Sofia 40.46% (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 59.11%
Equal 8 11.15%
Under 8 29.74%
Over 9 47.63%
Equal 9 11.47%
Under 9 40.89%
Over 10.5 36.79%
Under 10.5 63.21%

Derry City Goals

Over 1.5 46.17%
Under 1.5 53.83%
Over 2.5 21.49% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 78.51% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 8.11% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 91.89% (+0.02)

CSKA Sofia Goals

Over 0.5 62.04%
Under 0.5 37.96%
Over 1.5 29.21% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 70.79% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 10.36% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 89.64% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 3.18% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 96.82% (+0.01)

Score analysis

Derry City 48.34%
Draw 24.37%
CSKA Sofia 27.33%
Derry City
1-0 @ 10.23% (-0.01)
2-1 @ 9.4% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 8.3%
3-1 @ 4.9%
3-0 @ 4.54% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.94%
Other @ 8.03% (-0.01)
Total : 48.34%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.34%
0-0 @ 6.9% (+0.02)
2-2 @ 5.05%
3-3 @ 1% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.08%
Total : 24.37%
CSKA Sofia
0-1 @ 7.19%
1-2 @ 6.82% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 4.04%
1-3 @ 2.41% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.93%
0-3 @ 1.84% (+0.02)
Other @ 3.1% (-0.01)
Total : 27.33%

Head to Head

Europa League
Jul 9, 2026 7.00pm
3
2
HT : 2 1
FT Stadion Vasil Levski
  • Ioannis Pittas 19' goal
  • Bruno Jordão 41' goal
  • Ioannis Pittas 53' goal
  • goal Liam Boyce 31'
  • yellowcard Barry Cotter 75'
  • goal James Olayinka 88'