Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 58.21%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 20.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.67%) and 1-0 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.67%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 1-2 (5.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.