Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 54.45%. A win for Tobol had a probability of 23.56% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.26%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Tobol win was 1-2 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Gallen would win this match.