Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 45.03%. A win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.38%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest FC Winterthur win was 2-1 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Gallen would win this match.