Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Winterthur win with a probability of 46.23%. A win for St Gallen had a probability of 30.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Winterthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.07%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest St Gallen win was 1-2 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Winterthur would win this match.