Conference League
Jul 30, 2026 6.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
  • Nick Twisk 29' yellowcard
  • Brooklyn Lyons-Foster 46' yellowcard
  • Cameron Dummigan 69' yellowcard
  • Barry Cotter 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Daniel Adu-Adjei 14'
  • yellowcard Ante Majstorovic 65'

Derry City vs HNK Rijeka - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Derry City

All competitions
Conference League
Last game
Jul 23, 2026 7.45pm
Rijeka 1 - 0 Derry

HNK Rijeka

All competitions
Conference League
Last game
Jul 23, 2026 7.45pm
Rijeka 1 - 0 Derry

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 41.1%. A win for HNK Rijeka had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 (8.65%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.

Result

Derry City 41.1% ▲ (+0.11)
Draw 25.86% ▼ (-0.04)
HNK Rijeka 33.03% ▼ (-0.07)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.05% ▲ (+0.12)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.78% ▲ (+0.19)
Under 1.5 26.22% ▼ (-0.20)
Over 2.5 49.2% ▲ (+0.31)
Under 2.5 50.8% ▼ (-0.28)
Over 3.5 26.77% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 3.5 73.23% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 4.5 14.72% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 4.5 85.28% ▼ (-0.13)

First Half Winner

Derry City 30.86% ▲ (+0.02)
Draw 46.32% ▼ (-0.07)
HNK Rijeka 22.81% ▲ (+0.03)

Team To Score First

Derry City 51.69% ▲ (+0.09)
No Goal 7.47% ▼ (-0.04)
HNK Rijeka 40.84% ▼ (-0.06)

Corners

Over 8 58.95% ▲ (+0.11)
Equal 8 10.52% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 8 30.52% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 9 48.13% ▲ (+0.11)
Equal 9 10.83% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 9 41.05% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 10.5 37.83% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 10.5 62.17% ▼ (-0.09)

Derry City Goals

Over 1.5 39.27% ▲ (+0.25)
Under 1.5 60.73% ▼ (-0.25)
Over 2.5 16.46% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 2.5 83.54% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 3.5 5.44% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 3.5 94.56% ▼ (-0.07)

HNK Rijeka Goals

Over 0.5 66.57% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 0.5 33.43% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 1.5 33.21% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 1.5 66.79% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 2.5 12.43% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 2.5 87.57% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 3.5 3.84% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 3.5 96.16% ▼ (-0.03)

Score analysis

Derry City 41.1%
Draw 25.87%
HNK Rijeka 33.03%
Derry City
1-0 @ 10.1% ▼ (-0.07)
2-1 @ 8.69% ▲ (+0.05)
2-0 @ 7.05%
3-1 @ 3.9% ▲ (+0.03)
3-0 @ 3.52% ▲ (+0.03)
3-2 @ 2.55% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 5.29% ▲ (+0.06)
Total : 41.1%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.12% ▼ (-0.08)
0-0 @ 7.47% ▼ (-0.04)
2-2 @ 5.08% ▲ (+0.05)
3-3 @ 1.05% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.15% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 25.87%
HNK Rijeka
0-1 @ 8.65% ▼ (-0.08)
1-2 @ 7.74% ▲ (+0.03)
0-2 @ 5.41% ▼ (-0.05)
1-3 @ 3.07% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 2.48% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 1.99%
Other @ 3.69% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 33.03%

Head to Head

Conference League
Jul 23, 2026 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stadion HNK Rijeka
  • Ante Orec 7' yellowcard
  • Toni Fruk 52' goal
  • Daniel Adu-Adjei 59' yellowcard