Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 39.13%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 37.99% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.99%) and 0-2 (5.03%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.