England given 10% chance of Spain Nations League win as Ben White/Cole Palmer claim made

Ahead of Sunday's UEFA Nations League battle between Spain and England, Sports Mole site coordinator Ben Knapton explains why the Three Lions only have a "10-15%" chance of topping the group and makes an intriguing claim over Ben White and Cole Palmer.

England given "very slim chance" of Spain Nations League victory

I'd give them a very slim chance. We know that any win will do because in the Nations League, head-to-head results take precedence over goal difference.

If England win by one goal, they're level with Spain on head-to-head points, head-to-head goal difference and head-to-head goals scored, so then overall goal difference takes precedence, where England are superior to Spain.

If they win by two or three goals, then they top the group as well.

It's quite hard to judge based on what we've seen in one game, especially because I think we're now at that point in the season where fatigue is building and domestic and European commitments are really ramping up, especially for Premier League players.

I think we saw a bit of that in England's performance against Croatia. Quite a few standout names, I wouldn't say they had off nights, but they were just OK.

Lewis Hall was a standout, and Morgan Rogers too, but there was no one I really thought, "Wow, that was a magnificent individual display."

A win against Croatia is still nothing really to be scoffed at, even if they're not the Croatia side that they used to be. But facing world champions Spain, it's not impossible, of course. Nothing is impossible in football, but it'd be a very slim chance for me.

There is one thing that England are better at than Spain recently; they've scored two or more goals in each of their last six games, while Spain have done it in each of their last five.

Although the last time Spain scored just the one goal was in the World Cup final, so I can't really get too big-headed on that front.

Spain are now unbeaten in 43 matches, they haven't lost in 32 months, so I'd be pretty shocked if England could get the job done.

Ben White/Cole Palmer England claim made before Spain showdown

© Iconsport / Azzuu/SPI/PA Images/Mark Pain/Alamy

It's going to be really interesting to see what Tuchel does team news wise, because we're hoping that he'll be boosted by as many as three returns for this game.

Lewis-Skelly was banned against Croatia, and he'll return here. Ezri Konsa and Djed Spence just trained individually before the Croatia game, but there's hope that they'll return. I would absolutely start Konsa over Quansah for this game.

It's going to be fascinating to see whether Ben White comes in at right-back. He was booed again last night when he came off the bench.

He previously came out and said that if people knew the full story, then they wouldn't boo him. Now I'm just thinking, if Cole Palmer comes back into the squad, is he going to get the same level of treatment?

It is not an identical situation to Ben White, pulling out for load management versus personal reasons, but that's one I'll be fascinated to see if he gets called up in March.

Interestingly, I have seen some criticism of Declan Rice in an England kit. With Arsenal, Arteta really plays to his strengths, dropping him in between the centre-backs, where he can play those line-breaking passes.

We don't really see that so often for England, so I've seen quite a few people saying if Alex Scott was in the squad, they would start him alongside Elliot Anderson.

Lewis-Skelly is another option now that he's back from his ban, but I think it'll be Rice and Anderson in the middle. It'll be the same front four, but I would give them maybe a 10 to 15% chance of getting the win they need to top the group.