Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stromsgodset win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Lillestrom had a probability of 35.87% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stromsgodset win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.29%) and 2-0 (5.4%). The likeliest Lillestrom win was 1-2 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stromsgodset would win this match.