Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 52.8%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 24.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-2 (6.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peterborough United would win this match.