Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fleetwood Town win with a probability of 46.5%. A win for Barrow had a probability of 28.47% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fleetwood Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Barrow win was 0-1 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fleetwood Town would win this match.