Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 76.5%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for Jong FC Utrecht had a probability of 8.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.2%) and 1-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.99%), while for a Jong FC Utrecht win it was 0-1 (2.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.