Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 52.92%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 23.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.76%) and 0-2 (8.84%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-0 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.