Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 68.5%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 14.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.97%) and 3-1 (7.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.63%), while for a Vitesse win it was 1-2 (4.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.