Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MVV Maastricht win with a probability of 61.15%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Jong FC Utrecht had a probability of 18.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.96%) and 1-0 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Jong FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (5.07%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MVV Maastricht would win this match.