Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emmen win with a probability of 50.71%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 26.87% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emmen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.59%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Emmen in this match.