Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Helmond Sport win with a probability of 46.12%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Helmond Sport win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-2 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Helmond Sport would win this match.