Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong PSV win with a probability of 43.78%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 33.65% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong PSV win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.19%) and 2-0 (5.6%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-2 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong PSV would win this match.