Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 39.64%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 36.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.13%) and 0-2 (5.66%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 2-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.