Time is running out for Derby County to save their season ahead of their home fixture against Preston North End on Saturday.
The Rams are currently bottom of the Championship table and eight points adrift of safety, while the Lilywhites sit 14th.
Match preview
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Derby's spirit and togetherness in the face of adversity this season has been remarkable and without their 21-point deduction they would be sitting safe in 17th in the table.
The fact that they still remain in with a chance of survival is a credit to everyone at the club, but it appears to be too big of a mountain to climb.
Wayne Rooney's side seemed to be running out of steam before the international break and they are on a run of one win in seven matches, losing five of those.
A 1-1 draw against Coventry City a fortnight ago gave them something to build on going into the break, but continued uncertainty behind the scenes remains the more pressing issue.
The Rams have only lost three of their 19 home games this season, while 34 of the 46 points that they have earned have come at Pride Park.
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Preston also faltered before the international break, winning just one game in six, and their playoff hopes are all but over as they sit 10 points behind the top six with eight games to play.
A 4-0 away defeat to high-flying Luton Town in their last match was their worst defeat of the campaign and Ryan Lowe promised to refund all travelling supporters after the game.
It was out of character for a Lilywhites side who have generally proved tough to beat this season. It is only the fact that they have drawn the most games in the Championship (15) that they are not higher up the table.
A 0-0 draw in this season's reverse fixture at Deepdale ended a run of three consecutive Preston wins in meetings between these two sides.
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Team News
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Ravel Morrison is a doubt for Derby as he will not return from international duty with Jamaica until Friday, having played and scored against Honduras in the early hours of Thursday.
It could present an opportunity for Luke Plange, who has only been on the bench in the last two matches having started nine of the previous 10 games.
Colin Kazim-Richards is expected to miss the rest of the season after suffering an ankle injury against Blackburn Rovers before the international break.
Preston will hope to have Liam Lindsay available after he suffered an ankle injury against Cardiff before the international break and subsequently missed the humbling against Luton.
Emil Riis Jakobsen could come into the starting lineup after dropping to the bench against the Hatters before being brought on at half time. The striker spent three years on Derby's books as a teenager but never made a senior appearance.
Josh Murphy will also be pushing for a start having come off the bench at half time against Luton. He is yet to play from the off in a Preston shirt.
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Byrne, Davies, Cashin, Buchanan; Bird, Bielik; Ebiowei, Sibley, Lawrence; Plange
Preston North End possible starting lineup:
Iversen; Lindsay, Diaby, van den Berg; Potts, Johnson, Whiteman, Browne, Murphy; Riis, Archer
We say: Derby County 1-0 Preston North End
With Derby proving hard to beat on home turf and Preston having little left to play for, we are backing the Rams to give their survival hopes a boost with a hard-fought win. Wayne Rooney's side have shown that they should never be written off.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Preston North End had a probability of 28.39% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.54%) and 2-1 (8.5%). The likeliest Preston North End win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match.
