Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 40.95%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 34.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.24%) and 0-2 (6.32%). The likeliest Spezia win was 2-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.