Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 38.61%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 36.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.01%) and 0-2 (5.93%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 2-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%).