Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 45.17%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.

Result
Cagliari	Draw	Perugia
29.88% ( -1.19)	24.94% ( -0.87)	45.17% ( 2.06)

Both teams to score 55.79% (

2.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.72% (

3.2)

47.28% (

-3.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.49% (

2.9)

69.5% (

-2.9)

Cagliari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.6% (

0.79)

29.4% (

-0.8)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.61% (

0.96)

65.39% (

-0.96)

Perugia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.03% (

2.31)

20.97% (

-2.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.27% (

3.49)

53.73% (

-3.49)

Score Analysis

Cagliari 29.88%

Perugia 45.17%

Draw 24.94%

Cagliari	Draw	Perugia
1-0 @ 7.55% ( -0.87) 2-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 4.62% ( -0.42) 3-1 @ 2.94% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 0.9% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.47% Total : 29.88%	1-1 @ 11.79% ( -0.48) 0-0 @ 6.17% ( -0.86) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( 0.28) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.16) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.94%	0-1 @ 9.63% ( -0.61) 1-2 @ 9.21% ( 0.27) 0-2 @ 7.52% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 4.79% ( 0.45) 0-3 @ 3.92% ( 0.29) 2-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.33) 1-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.29) 0-4 @ 1.53% ( 0.21) 2-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.2) Other @ 2.62% Total : 45.17%