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Sao Paulo
Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Aug 3, 2022 at 11.15pm UK
Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi) (São Paulo, São Paulo)
Ceara

Sao Paulo
1 - 0
Ceara

Nikao (70')
Welington (42'), Maia (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Paraiba (14'), Luis (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Sao Paulo and Ceara, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sao Paulo

Last Six:
Last Game: Athletico PR 1-0 Sao Paulo
Sunday, July 31 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Ceara

Last Six:
Last Game: Ceara 1-2 Palmeiras
Saturday, July 30 at 8.30pm in Brasileiro

We said: Sao Paulo 1-1 Ceara

 Ceara's flawless record is on the line in Sao Paulo, and they are likely to defend it with tooth and claw, so an all-too-familiar draw could be on the cards for both sides in this first-leg encounter. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 48.72%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Ceara had a probability of 24.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.82%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a Ceara win it was 0-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match.

Result
Sao PauloDrawCeara
48.72% (0.029000000000003 0.03) 27.14% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05) 24.14% (0.026 0.03)
Both teams to score 44.94% (0.167 0.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.71% (0.20200000000001 0.2)59.29% (-0.2 -0.2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.3% (0.155 0.16)79.7% (-0.15400000000001 -0.15)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.54% (0.10300000000001 0.1)24.46% (-0.101 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.09% (0.143 0.14)58.91% (-0.142 -0.14)
Ceara Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.49% (0.14 0.14)40.51% (-0.138 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.89% (0.126 0.13)77.11% (-0.125 -0.13)
Score Analysis
    Sao Paulo 48.72%
    Ceara 24.14%
    Draw 27.13%
Sao PauloDrawCeara
1-0 @ 13.95% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-0 @ 9.82% (-0.017000000000001 -0.02)
2-1 @ 8.88% (0.019 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.61% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.17% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.88% (0.017 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.62% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.47% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 48.72%
1-1 @ 12.6% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 9.91% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
2-2 @ 4.01% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 27.13%
0-1 @ 8.96% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
1-2 @ 5.7% (0.017 0.02)
0-2 @ 4.05%
1-3 @ 1.72% (0.011 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.22% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.21% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 1.3%
Total : 24.14%

How you voted: Sao Paulo vs Ceara

Sao Paulo
62.5%
Draw
21.9%
Ceara
15.6%
32
Head to Head
May 28, 2022 11pm
Sao Paulo
2-2
Ceara
Calleri (8'), Nestor (42')
Anderson (34'), Rafinha (64'), Gomes (66')
Gomes (90')
Cleber (37'), Mendoza (71')
Ribeiro (16'), Richardson (20'), Junior (44'), Mendoza (66')
Oct 14, 2021 11pm
Sao Paulo
1-1
Ceara
Calleri (52')
Miranda (38'), Manuel Orejuela (48'), Calleri (61')
Fabinho (23')
Fabinho (36'), Richard (45+3'), Oliveira (86')
Jun 28, 2021 12.30am
Ceara
1-1
Sao Paulo
Jorginho (23')
Jorginho (26'), Saulo (45+1'), Lacerda (68'), Jael (81')
Dias (53' og.)
Reinaldo (26'), Hernanes (28'), Eder (53'), Alves (76'), Benitez (77'), Juan (90+1')
Feb 11, 2021 12am
Sao Paulo
1-1
Ceara
Luciano (90+7')
Pablo (23'), Gomes (49'), Juanfran (67'), Toro (90+10')
Chu (90+3')
Xavier (21'), Charles (63'), Tiago (71'), Ferreira (75'), Sobral (82')
Nov 25, 2020 10.15pm
Ceara
1-1
Sao Paulo
Chu (47')
Vinicius (60'), Tiago (61'), Chu (66'), Xavier (90+2'), Sobral (90+3')
Diego (11')
Reinaldo (61'), Luan (64'), Diego (87')
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