Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Aug 3, 2022 at 11.15pm UK

Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi) (São Paulo, São Paulo)

Sao Paulo
1 - 0
Ceara

(2-2 on aggregate)

Nikao (70')
Welington (42'), Maia (90+5')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Paraiba (14'), Luis (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Sao Paulo and Ceara, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sao Paulo

Last Six:

Last Game: Athletico PR 1-0 Sao Paulo
Sunday, July 31 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
9	Santos	20	6	27
10	Sao Paulo	20	3	26
11	Goias	20	-3	25

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 48.72%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Ceara had a probability of 24.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.82%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a Ceara win it was 0-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match.

Result
Sao Paulo	Draw	Ceara
48.72% ( 0.03)	27.14% ( -0.05)	24.14% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 44.94% (

0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.71% (

0.2)

59.29% (

-0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.3% (

0.16)

79.7% (

-0.15)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.54% (

0.1)

24.46% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.09% (

0.14)

58.91% (

-0.14)

Ceara Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.49% (

0.14)

40.51% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.89% (

0.13)

77.11% (

-0.13)

Score Analysis

Sao Paulo 48.72%

Ceara 24.14%

Draw 27.13%

Sao Paulo	Draw	Ceara
1-0 @ 13.95% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 9.82% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.61% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.17% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.32% Total : 48.72%	1-1 @ 12.6% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.91% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 4.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.61% Total : 27.13%	0-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.05% 1-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.3% Total : 24.14%