Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

May 8, 2025 at 3am UK

Estadio Palogrande

Once Caldas
1 - 0
Union Espanola

Angel Palacios Mena (16', 16')
Angel Palacios Mena (53'), Angel Palacios Mena (53'), Carlos Diaz Mena (90+3'), Carlos Diaz Mena (90+3')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Aranguiz (35'), Aranguiz (35'), Ramirez (56'), Ramirez (56')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Once Caldas and Union Espanola.

Form, Standings, Stats

Once Caldas

Last Game: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2-3 Once Caldas
Wednesday, April 23 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Union Espanola

Last Game: Union Espanola 1-1 Fluminense
Wednesday, April 23 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Once Caldas win with a probability of 45.59%. A win for Union Espanola had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Once Caldas win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Union Espanola win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Once Caldas in this match.

Result
Once Caldas	Draw	Union Espanola
45.59% ( -0.19)	25.77% ( 0.08)	28.65% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 52.38% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.62% (

-0.25)

51.38% (

0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.8% (

-0.22)

73.2% (

0.22)

Once Caldas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.5% (

-0.19)

22.5% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.93% (

-0.29)

56.07% (

0.29)

Union Espanola Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.59% (

-0.05)

32.41% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.08% (

-0.06)

68.92% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Once Caldas 45.58%

Union Espanola 28.65%

Draw 25.76%

Once Caldas	Draw	Union Espanola
1-0 @ 10.87% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.14% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.11% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.54% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 4.03% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.5% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.17% Total : 45.58%	1-1 @ 12.25% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.29% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.76%	0-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 6.91% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.63% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.59% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.63% Total : 28.65%