Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gualberto Villarroel SJ win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Once Caldas had a probability of 29.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gualberto Villarroel SJ win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Once Caldas win was 0-1 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.