Copa Sudamericana | First Round

Mar 6, 2025 at 12.30am UK

Estadio Palogrande

Once Caldas
1 - 0
Millonarios

Barrios (80', 80')
Arley Zapata Ramirez (32'), Arley Zapata Ramirez (32'), Andres Malagon Piracun (68'), Andres Malagon Piracun (68'), Barrios (81'), Barrios (81'), Beltran (83'), Beltran (83'), Angel Palacios Mena (90+3'), Angel Palacios Mena (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Andres Valencia Mena (23'), Andres Valencia Mena (23'), Pablo Vargas (32'), Pablo Vargas (32'), Giordana (90+1'), Giordana (90+1')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Once Caldas and Millonarios.

Form, Standings, Stats

Once Caldas

Last Game: Once Caldas 0-2 Deportivo Santani
Friday, February 22 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Millonarios

Last Game: River Plate 1-1 Millonarios
Tuesday, July 9 at 10.30pm in Club Friendlies 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Once Caldas win with a probability of 38.05%. A win for Millonarios had a probability of 32.75% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Once Caldas win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.67%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Millonarios win was 0-1 (11.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Once Caldas in this match.

Result
Once Caldas	Draw	Millonarios
38.05% ( 0.43)	29.19% ( -0.09)	32.75% ( -0.33)

Both teams to score 44.09% (

0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.34% (

0.27)

62.66% (

-0.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.78% (

0.2)

82.22% (

-0.2)

Once Caldas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.19% (

0.41)

31.81% (

-0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.75% (

0.46)

68.25% (

-0.46)

Millonarios Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.67% (

-0.09)

35.33% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.91% (

-0.09)

72.09% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Once Caldas 38.05%

Millonarios 32.75%

Draw 29.19%

Once Caldas	Draw	Millonarios
1-0 @ 12.87% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 2.93% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.87% Total : 38.05%	1-1 @ 13.39% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 11.24% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 3.99% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.57% Total : 29.19%	0-1 @ 11.69% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 6.97% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.1% Total : 32.75%