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Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Third Round | 1st Leg
Mar 6, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Nacional
0 - 2
Palestino


Blasi (41'), Blasi (41'), Caballero (45+3'), Caballero (45+2'), Santacruz (80'), Santacruz (80'), Arevalo (81'), Arevalo (81'), Isaias Caballero Fleytas (90+3'), Caballero (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Carrasco (47', 47'), Sosa (50', 50')
Cornejo (63'), Cornejo (63')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Third Round clash between Club Nacional and Palestino.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Nacional

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Last Game: Atletico Nacional 0-3 Nacional
Thursday, February 29 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Palestino

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Last Game: Palestino 2-1 Portuguesa
Tuesday, February 27 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Nacional win with a probability of 40.45%. A win for Palestino had a probability of 32.59% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Palestino win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.

Result
Club NacionalDrawPalestino
40.45% (0.018999999999998 0.02)26.96% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)32.59% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Both teams to score 50.49% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.34% (0.010000000000005 0.01)54.66% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.01% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)75.99% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Club Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.47% (0.015000000000001 0.02)26.53% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.27% (0.018999999999998 0.02)61.73% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Palestino Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.72% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)31.28% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.36% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)67.64% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Club Nacional 40.45%
    Palestino 32.59%
    Draw 26.95%
Club NacionalDrawPalestino
1-0 @ 11.01%
2-1 @ 8.49% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 7.31% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 3.76% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-0 @ 3.23% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.18% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.25% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 1.07% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.15%
Total : 40.45%
1-1 @ 12.79%
0-0 @ 8.3% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 4.93% (0.0010000000000003 0)
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 26.95%
0-1 @ 9.64% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-2 @ 7.44% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-2 @ 5.6% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-3 @ 2.88% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
0-3 @ 2.17% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-3 @ 1.91%
Other @ 2.94%
Total : 32.59%