Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 45.49%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 28.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.