Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 37.6%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 (10.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Valencia would win this match.