Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 37.41%. A win for Real Oviedo had a probability of 31.41% and a draw had a probability of 31.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.57%) and 1-2 (6.99%). The likeliest Real Oviedo win was 1-0 (13.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.